Births, Deaths, and Algebra

                                                 

                              Births, Deaths, and Algebra

 Something you need to know:

19.5 births/1000 (1000= be careful! Not /100)
P=Population
P(2012) = P(2011) + P(2011) (B-D)
P(2012)= Want to estimate population for 2012
P(2011) = This is the population we started within 2011
P(2011) (B-D) = This is the growth for 2011
B = Birth rate in decimal form
D = Death rate in decimal form

Macedonia:
Birth Rate: 11.9/1000 = 0.0119
Death Rate: 8.9/1000 = 0.0089
The Equation:
P(2012) = P(2011) + P(2011) (B-D)
P(2012) = 2,114,550 + 2,114,550 (0.0119 - 0.0089)
0.0119 - 0.0089 = 0.003
2,114,550 + 2,114,550 times 0.003
Here, I made a mistake, and my solution at the end was wrong. I first added 2,114,550 + 2,114,550 and then multiplied 0.003! Everybody should watch out at this stage. What I then figured out is that I have to use PEMDAS (Parantheses, Exponents, Multiplication, Divisoin, Addition, Subtraction) in order! This is called the order of operations!
The final result is: 2,120,893.65
To simplify this, the final, FINAL result is 2,120,894. This is the population for the people in 2012.

Future Macedonia:

What will be the population in Macedonia in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016? How will we find this out?

Birth Rate: For calculating the average birth rate, I've used values from 2005 - 2011 and I have calculated that the average birth rates are decreased by 0.022 every year!
I got that estimated values of the birth rate is as following:

2011:	2012:	2013:	2014:	2015:	2016:
11.87	11.85	11.63	11.61	11.58	11.56

Death Rate: For calculating the average death Rate I did the same thing, but including different numbers:

2011:	2012:	2013:	2014:	2015:	2016:
8.90	8.928	8.956	8.984	9.012	9.04

I found that the average increase from year to year will be 0.028

Finally I chose to use these values to calculate the estimated values for the Macedonian population:

P(2013) = 2,120,894 + 2,120,894 (11.848 - 8.928 / 1,000)
= 2,120,894 + 2,120,894 times 0.00292
= 2,120,894 + 6193.27 = 2,127,087

P(2014) = 2,127,087 + 2,127,087 (11.61-8.984/1000)
= 2,127,087 + 2,127,087 times 0.002626
= 2,127,087 + 5585.7 = 2,132,672

P(2015) = 2,132,672 + 2,132,672 (11.58 - 9.012 / 1,000)
= 2,132,672 + 2,132,672 times 0.002568
= 2,132,672 + 5,47.7 = 2,138,148

P(2016) = 2,138,148 + 2,138,148 (11.56 – 9.04 / 1,000)
=  2,138,148 + 2,138,148 times 0.00252
= 2,138,148 + 5388 = 2,143,536
Now that I know the formula for each year, I can find out what the population for Macedonia will be even in 2050! It would just be a little tedious though, or I can use a graph to do my estimation easily.